Key Takeaway
The Apple Vision Pro, a combination of Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) headset, is a technical marvel, but its initial product/market fit is considered a miss. The author draws parallels with historical examples, emphasizing the importance of understanding customer needs and exploring niche markets.
Summary
- Introduction:
- Apple has launched the Apple Vision Pro, a VR/AR headset, showcasing impressive technical capabilities.
- The author questions the product/market fit of this initial iteration.
- Common Mistakes in Consumer Products:
- Companies often create innovative hardware without considering existing customer needs.
- Forecasting demand based on previous product volumes can lead to confusion.
- New product categories without a frame of reference can hinder consumer understanding.
- Failure to match hardware with existing customer needs results in revenue shortfalls.
- Kodak’s PhotoCD Example:
- The author recounts the failure of Kodak’s PhotoCD, emphasizing the importance of understanding target markets.
- Kodak’s misjudgment in launching as a consumer product led to failure.
- Apple’s Approach and Challenges:
- Apple is attempting to push Vision Pro to its existing consumer base.
- The lack of demos for potential niche markets (e.g., home repair, industrial applications) is highlighted.
- Apple’s historical success in entering new markets is acknowledged, but the need for time and commitment is stressed.
- Expectations and Hope for Apple:
- The author expresses hope that Apple will find success by identifying adjacent markets and improving future iterations.
- Apple’s CEO, Tim Cook, is mentioned as having made a personal bet on the Vision Pro’s success.
- Reader Comments:
- Reader comments express varied opinions, with some defending the product’s potential in specific use cases.
- The potential of government contracts, educational uses, and industrial applications is discussed.
- Conclusion:
- The author concludes that, despite the current challenges, Apple’s resources and commitment may lead to eventual success.
- A call for entrepreneurs to explore the product during its early stages and take advantage of the return policy is suggested.
- Steve Blank Apple Vision Pro – Tech in the Search of a Market
- A version of this article previously appeared in Fortune.