This article argues that the notion that we live in a ‘VUCA world‘ is overstated and examines evidence that challenges the conventional wisdom around rapid change and disruption.
- The author questions the common belief that everything is changing faster, pointing to a lack of evidence supporting this view. Some things have accelerated but others have slowed.
- Economic data shows many industries have become less competitive over time, with fewer but larger firms and a concentration of profits. This is contrasted with the ideal of constant disruption.
- Digital technologies account for a small portion of GDP, and the Silicon Valley model of ‘move fast and break things’ does not translate to other industries like manufacturing which cannot tolerate failure.
- Many innovations went through long periods of slow development before accelerating. mRNA vaccine research is cited as going back decades before covid-19 spurred rapid progress.
- Constant calls for disruption prioritize change as an end in itself rather than a means to solve problems. This can result in many initiatives that fail to deliver value.
- A focus on improvement and addressing ‘grand challenges’ is suggested to better serve people rather than merely celebrating disruption itself.
In summary, the article questions the notion that we live in a perpetually disruptive ‘VUCA world’ and argues for a more nuanced view of the pace of change across different sectors as well as the value of continuity and improvement over constant restructuring.
We always recommend to read and listen to Greg Satell.
- Definition of VUCA
- Wisdom on strategy by Greg Satell
- https://www.youtube.com/@DigitalTonto